Key rate. Key rate and refinancing rate table

Decisions taken by the Central Bank and information on changes in inflation, etc. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is ready to continue reducing the key rate as price growth continues to slow down.

Updated: 02.12.2020 The Bank of Russia again reduced the key rate. At what percentage will consumer loans be issued?

Currently, the key rate
is 6.00% per annum , see the table in the key rate and refinancing rate.
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From January 1, 2021, the key rate will replace the refinancing rate
“The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided on June 15, 2015 to reduce the key rate from 12.5% ​​to 11.5% per annum, taking into account the further weakening of inflation risks while maintaining the risks of a significant cooling of the economy,” - the Central Bank said in a statement.
As noted, in the context of declining consumer demand and the strengthening of the ruble in February-May, the slowdown in price growth continued. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, annual inflation in June 2021 will be less than 7% and will reach the target level of 4% in 2021.

The message also emphasizes that the Bank of Russia is ready to continue reducing the key rate

as consumer price growth slows further. As noted, the slowdown in price growth is also due to the adjustment to foreign trade restrictions introduced in August 2014, after which this factor ceased to exert additional inflationary pressure.

Also, according to the Bank of Russia, under the influence of previously made decisions to reduce the key rate, the downward trend in lending and deposit rates continues, but their level remains high, which helps to maintain the attractiveness of savings in rubles, although it slows down lending growth.

According to the regulator's estimates, inflation will continue to decline in 2015-2017. At the same time, the main sources of inflation risks are a possible deterioration in the foreign economic environment, the persistence of inflation expectations at an elevated level, a revision of the rate of increase in regulated prices and tariffs planned for 2016-2017, and an easing of budget policy.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for July 31, 2015.

Key rate of the Bank of Russia for December 2021 - February 2021

At the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on December 18, 2021, it was decided to maintain the key rate at 4.25%.

This key rate will be valid from July 27, 2020 to February 12, 2021, i.e. before the date of the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.

The previous key rate of the Bank of Russia was 4.50% and its validity period lasted one month (from June 22, 2021 to July 26, 2020).

When deciding to maintain the key rate at 4.25% per annum, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia proceeded from the following:

Inflation dynamics.
Inflation is higher than the forecast of the Bank of Russia and at the end of 2020 is expected to be in the range of 4.6–4.9%. This is largely due to the effect of one-time pro-inflationary factors in individual markets and the continued transfer of the previous weakening of the ruble into prices. However, these factors may have a longer-term upward impact on prices against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations of households and businesses, as well as supply restrictions. In November, annual inflation increased to 4.4% (after 4.0% in October), and, as of December 14, it was estimated at 4.7%. Indicators of the current growth rate of consumer prices, reflecting the most stable processes of price dynamics, according to Bank of Russia estimates, also increased in November and were close to 4% in annual terms.

The population's inflation expectations continued to rise, which is mainly due to rising prices for certain consumer goods and exchange rate volatility. Price expectations of enterprises have increased in previous months and remain at an elevated level, formed under the influence of rising costs. Professional analysts' expectations regarding inflation in the medium term are anchored around 4%.

Although the restraining influence of domestic demand on price dynamics remains, in the short term it is compensated by pro-inflationary factors. These include supply-side factors, including an emerging labor shortage in a number of specialties and additional costs for enterprises to comply with anti-epidemic standards, as well as secondary effects associated with rising inflation expectations. Under these conditions, the impact of one-time pro-inflationary factors on price dynamics may be longer-lasting. As their influence wanes, consumer price growth will slow. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, under the current monetary policy, annual inflation will amount to 3.5–4.0% in 2021 and will remain around 4% in the future.

Monetary conditions

in general, have not changed significantly since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. Loan and deposit rates have largely stabilized, and lending continued to expand. The change in OFZ yields for different periods was uneven. Yields on medium-term OFZ bonds decreased slightly as the situation in financial and commodity markets improved, including against the backdrop of expectations for a faster global economic recovery due to progress in creating vaccines. Along with soft monetary conditions, the dynamics of lending are influenced by preferential programs of the Government, as well as regulatory easing. When making decisions on the key rate, the Bank of Russia will assess how much the termination of these anti-crisis measures will affect monetary conditions.

Economic activity.

Current indicators of economic activity indicate a pause in economic recovery in the fourth quarter. However, the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Russia and in the world has a significantly less significant restraining effect on the economy than in the second quarter. This is due to the targeted nature of restrictive measures and the adaptation of citizens and enterprises to new conditions. Taking this into account, as well as higher-than-expected data for the third quarter, the decline in GDP in 2021 could be about 4%.

In the spring of 2021, a steady resumption of growth in the Russian economy is expected as the morbidity situation normalizes. The medium-term trajectory of economic growth will be significantly influenced by the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic in Russia and in the world, the nature of the recovery in private demand in the face of possible changes in the behavior of the population and business, as well as the upcoming fiscal consolidation. Loose monetary policy will continue to support the economy next year.

Inflation risks.

Disinflationary risks in 2021 no longer prevail to the same extent as they previously did, given the strengthening of short-term pro-inflationary factors and the risks of their longer-term effect in the face of rising inflation expectations and associated secondary effects.

Short-term pro-inflationary risks are also associated with increased volatility in global markets, including under the influence of various geopolitical events, which may affect exchange rate and inflation expectations. Temporary difficulties in production and logistics chains, as well as additional costs for enterprises associated with protecting workers and consumers from the threat of the spread of coronavirus, may put upward pressure on prices. Pro-inflationary risks are created by the dynamics of domestic prices for certain food products under the influence of supply-side factors and the conditions of the relevant world markets.

Disinflationary risks for the base scenario are mainly associated with the further development of the situation with the coronavirus pandemic in Russia and in the world, the scale of possible measures to combat it and their impact on economic activity, as well as the speed of economic recovery and household incomes. Sustained changes in the preferences and behavior of the population, including a possible sustained increase in the propensity to save, may also have a moderating effect on inflation dynamics.

Uncertainty remains regarding the long-term structural consequences of the coronavirus pandemic for the Russian and global economies, in particular the scale of the decline in the potential of the Russian economy. Geopolitical factors, including worsening trade tensions, can also have a significant impact on the potential for global growth. The scale of deviation of the Russian economy from potential, in turn, is a determining factor for the medium-term dynamics of inflation.

Budget policy significantly influences the medium-term dynamics of inflation. In the base scenario, the Bank of Russia proceeds from the trajectory of fiscal policy reflected in the Main Directions of Budget, Tax and Customs Tariff Policy for 2021 and for the planning period of 2022 and 2023, as well as the stated deadlines for completing anti-crisis measures of the Government and the Bank of Russia.

Taking into account the high heterogeneity of current trends in the economy and price dynamics, the Bank of Russia will assess further developments of the situation and the potential for an additional reduction in the key rate. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, economic development over the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for February 12, 2021.
The time for publishing a press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia is
13:30 Moscow time
.

Who calculates the penalty

If a taxpayer or employer fails to remit taxes or contributions on time, he or she will be assessed penalties. To pay penalties, you will have to wait for a request from the Federal Tax Service, which itself must establish the fact of non-payment and charge penalties.

If a taxpayer sees a tax arrears and plans to close it, he must act in the following order:

• calculate the amount of penalties yourself;
• pay the amount of arrears and penalties;
• submit an updated declaration.

In this case, the taxpayer will avoid a fine (see paragraph 1 and paragraph 4 of Article 81 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation). If you first send an update and only then pay the arrears and penalties, the tax office will impose a fine.

Dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2021 and beyond...

The key rate was declared as the main instrument of monetary policy from September 13, 2013. From this date until the end of 2013, it was 5.50% per annum, inflation at the end of 2013 was 6.45%.

In 2014, the key rate changed 6 times, all in the direction of growth. Russia ended 2014 with the Central Bank key rate of 17.00%. A sharp increase in the key rate to 17.00% per annum occurred on December 16, 2014. The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia noted that this decision was due to the need to limit devaluation and inflation risks that have significantly increased recently. Inflation at the end of 2014 was 11.36%.

2015, which began with a rate of 17% per annum, continued with its gradual decrease. During 2015, there were 5 changes in the key rate, and there were 6 rates during the year. The year ended with the key rate at 11.00%. Inflation at the end of 2015 was 12.90%.

During January - June 2021, the Bank of Russia periodically decided to maintain the key rate in force since 2015 at 11.0% per annum, from June 14 - reduced it to 10.50%, and from September 19, 2016, reduced it to - 10. 00%. At the end of 2021, the key rate was kept at 10.00%. Inflation at the end of 2021 was 5.4%.

Since the beginning of 2021, the key rate by the Bank of Russia has been maintained at 10.00%, and from the second quarter it began to be systematically lowered. During 2021, the key rate changed 6 times and decreased from 10.00% to 7.75% by the end of the year. Inflation in Russia for 2021 amounted to 2.5%.

At the beginning of 2021, the key rate of the Bank of Russia was 7.75% per annum, from 02/12/2018 it was reduced to 7.50%., from March 26, 2021 it was reduced to 7.25% per annum, and from 09/17/2018 it was increased to 7 ,50%. From December 17, 2018, the rate was again increased to 7.75% and returned to the rate in force at the beginning of the year. The key rate of 7.75% will be valid until March 22, 2021.

From the beginning of 2021, the Bank of Russia rate was 7.75% per annum, from June 17, 2021 - 7.50%, from July 29, 2021 - 7.25%, from 09/09/2019 - 7.00%, from 10/28/2019 year - 6.50%, and from December 16, 2019 - 6.25% and which will still be valid until February 7, 2021. The dynamics of the Bank of Russia key rate in 2021 are impressive, since during the year it has changed for the sixth time. The overall decrease for the year was 1.50 percentage points.

Since the beginning of 2021, the key rate of the Bank of Russia has been 6.25% per annum, and from 02/10/2020 it is 6.00%, from 04/27/2020. - 5.50%, from June 22, 2020 - 4.50%, and from July 27, 2020 - 4.25%. This is the fifth and final rate change in a year.

From the beginning of 2021, the key rate is 4.25%.

Bet value

Today, the regulator is gradually reducing the rate. This is due to the stabilization of the economy and low inflation. A decrease was observed in 2021, and for 2021 the forecast for improvement in macro and microeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation remains unchanged. The last decrease in the indicator occurred on March 26 of this year. According to the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the regulator plans to continue the gradual reduction if the economy continues to show growth signals. The next change is possible as early as April 2021. To find out exactly what the key rate is, you should use the latest information from the Central Bank website.

Table of dynamics (changes) of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2021

The table shows the dynamics (changes) of the Bank of Russia key rate since its introduction (since September 13, 2013):

Comments: 1

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Author of the article Dmitry Sysoev

Consultant, author Popovich Anna

Financial author Olga Pikhotskaya

1. Alexey
   01/18/2021 at 16:11 Cetelem Bank raised my interest rate on a car loan from 15% to 18.70% for refusing life insurance and intends to file a complaint with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
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When can you avoid paying penalties?

In some cases, penalties are not charged. For example, when a taxpayer’s account is blocked or money is seized by court order. Or when, when calculating taxes or contributions, a businessman was guided by a court ruling.

You will also avoid penalties if the arrears arose due to an error in the payment order, which can be corrected by clarifying the payment - in this case, the penalties will be reversed. The error is corrected by clarification if it is not associated with an incorrect indication of the account number, recipient bank or KBK.

For what days are penalties accrued?

The first day for accrual of penalties is considered to be the next day after the deadline for payment of taxes or contributions. Officials have differences regarding the last day for calculating penalties.

The Federal Tax Service clarified that penalties stop accruing the next day after payment, which means the day of payment is included in the calculation of penalties. However, there is a letter from the Ministry of Finance stating that there is no need to charge penalties for the day the arrears are paid. This letter was not sent to tax authorities for mandatory application, so you can be guided by these explanations at your own peril and risk.

If the amount of penalties per day is small, it is safer to include the day of payment in the calculation of penalties. If the amount is large, be prepared to have to defend your actions in court. In addition, the taxpayer can make a written request to clarify the calculation procedure from the Ministry of Finance in order to rely on the official response in the calculations.